Radar — KDIX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: South Penn Square (Primary)
Flood watches have been cancelled with the exception of the northern jersey shore and portions of central and northern nj.
1. Rainfall winds down for most, though some flooding remains possible for the northern coast.
2. There will be lingering chances for some showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area for thursday and friday however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.
Key message 1... Rainfall winds down for most, though some flooding remains possible for the northern coast.
The flood watch was cancelled for most areas as rain has ended and guidance is less enthusiastic about the precipitation later today. Still have some heavy rain ongoing for the ocean and monmouth county coast with active flood warnings, so have left up the watch there. Same for morris county where there are active warnings and flooding reports, but the heavy rain has ended there. Once this activity moves off the coast and the warnings expire, the plan is to cancel the rest of the flood watch.
As low pressure meanders, another front will come through on wednesday, capable of producing some heavy downpours yet again for the northern third of the region. This will move over some more urbanized areas in north jersey that should get a decent amount of rainfall today, potentially causing more problems. While mainstem river flooding is not currently forecast, some smaller creeks and streams within the passaic and raritan basins could see some rises that result in flooding.
Key message 2...there will be lingering chances for some showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area for thursday and friday however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.
Low pressure and its associated upper level trough will be slow to depart to our east through the course of thursday and friday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, especially for thursday. For thursday, forecast models continue to depict a closed circulation at 500mb slowly drifting east through new england. Along the backside of this feature, some showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the area with the highest pops (around 60 percent) for portions of central and nj. In terms of timing, it should be mainly focused around the afternoon into the early evening period coincident with peak heating. Generally expect highs ranging from the middle to upper 70S north to the low to mid 80S south.
For friday, the system will continue to pull farther away so by and large it should be a partly to mostly sunny day with slightly warm temperatures compared to thursday. However still can't rule out some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon mainly over nj into portion of eastern pa (mainly north of philly). Pops though are only around 20 percent.
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Rest of tonight (through 12Z)...some terminals are VFR currently but all sites should drop to MVFR/IFR with stratus. Low-level dry air moving now and a steady wind should limit fog development outside of krdg, but cannot rule out fog elsewhere (10-15% chance). Winds out of the west/northwest around 5 KT. Moderate confidence.
Today...IFR cigs should lift not long after daybreak but MVFR cigs linger through the morning before lifting to VFR between 15Z-17Z. Model guidance has lowered the chance for precipitation and restrictions as well, so removed vcsh from the tafs with the exception of kabe. Winds out of the northwest around 10 KT with gusts 20 to 25 KT for the afternoon and early evening. Moderate confidence.
Tonight....VFR. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 KT. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday...primarily VFR, though cannot rule out some showers and isolated thunderstorms around kabe/kttn.
Thursday night through saturday night...VFR. No significant weather.
Sunday...primarily VFR though afternoon showers and thunderstorms could result in some restrictions.
A small craft advisory is in effect for all ocean zones through 6 AM as winds have declined but seas remain near 5 feet. No headlines on delaware bay.
For today and tonight, sub-sca conditions are expected with northwest winds around 10 to 20 KT and seas of 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Thursday through sunday...no marine headlines expected.
Rip currents...
For wednesday and thursday, winds turn more offshore around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less. While the full moon is on wednesday, decreasing wave heights, more offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds should limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a low risk for rip currents at all beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi