Radar — KPBZ
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: Grant Street (Primary)
Updated for 00Z tafs.
1) dry weather and above normal temperatures favored through the middle of next week before rain chances return.
Key message 1... Eastern conus surface high pressure remains the dominant weather feature as it promotes dry weather and above normal temperature this weekend into early next week. For those trick- or-treating tonight, this means temperatures hovering the 50S to lower 60S with a slower nighttime cool off thanks to cirrus clouds aloft. Warm advection to start the week also means highs become 10-15 degrees above normal by wednesday (though no high temperature records are at risk).
The exception to the dry/warm forecast comes monday as a decaying trough lifts northward amid deeper trough development across the rockies, pushing a marginal warm front northward. 6/12hr probabilities of measurable rainfall remain less than 10% but 24hr probabilities approach 20% for eastern oh during this time; this insinuates a non-zero chance for light rain/sprinkles that is not currently forecasted because temporal variation (along with yes/no on occurrence) remains high.
Outside of that, ensembles favor wednesday night into the end of the week for an upper trough/surface low system to return rain to the region while dropping temperature closer toward average (but remaining above normal). Variability remains in its structure but the resultant impacts in a vast majority of those scenarios is very low.
High pressure analyzed nearly overhead will maintain VFR conditions through the taf period. Increasing mid-level moisture downstream of a trough across the midwest will support a blanket of overcast skies through sunday. This will also aid in warmer overnight lows and preclude fog development saturday night.
On sunday, as the high slowly migrates east, wind takes on a more southeasterly component around 5 knots.
Outlook... VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase during the middle of next week with approaching low pressure.