Radar — KPUX
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (Central)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: [Near South Freeway] (Primary)
- efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible today and this evening, initially across the mountains and spreading into the plains; flash flood watches have been issue.
- shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated thursday and friday, before drier conditions arrive over the weekend.
- hot temperatures are forecast for sunday and monday, with the plains back into the 100 degree range.
Issued at 1231 AM MDT wed jul 29 2026
Currently...satellite imagery early this morning show an upper high over southwest colorado, with an upper wave dropping south across the plains. This has led to showers and thunderstorms tracking east across the far eastern plains, which will continue to do so through the early morning hours. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60S, and likely will not fall much through daybreak, as dewpoints are also in the lower to mid 60S across the plains.
Today and tonight...the upper high will continue to sit across southwest colorado through this afternoon, before flattening across the desert southwest overnight. The next upper wave is forecast to rotate south across eastern colorado this afternoon. Moisture will remain in place across the plains, with dewpoints remaining in the upper 50S to mid 60S, with steady southeast flow keeping moisture pooled across the plains. PWAT values remain elevated as well, with values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range. SHEAR remain weak with 0-6 km values around 20 KTS, and sbcape values mainly in the 900-1200 j/kg range. With the upper wave dropping south across the region, expected showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid day across the higher terrain, and spread eastward into the plains by late afternoon to early evening. At this time, thunderstorms look to remain sub-severe, with lighting, gusty outflow winds near 45 MPH and half inch hail all possible with stronger cores. The main concern will be how efficient the cells will be at producing heavy rainfall. The flash flood watch for the aspen acres burn scar remains in place for this afternoon and evening, with another round of heavy rain from thunderstorms in the forecast. Expanded the flash flood watch for the i-2 corridor, northeast into kiowa county. These areas saw pockets of 1-2+ inch rainfall on tuesday, and additional heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding, especially in area that saw heavy rain on tuesday. Of particular concern are low lying areas and areas that flood easily.
Showers and thunderstorms will track eastward across the plains during the evening hours, clearing east into kansas overnight into thursday morning.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with upper 80S to lower 90S across the plains, and 80S across the san luis valley. Overnight hows will remain mild, with 60S across the plains, and 50S for the san luis valley.
Issued at 1231 AM MDT wed jul 29 2026
Models and ensembles are in good agreement through the weekend, with difference arising by early to mid next week. Conditions will gradually dry out by the weekend and heat up.
Thursday and friday...the upper high will sit across the four corners region thursday, and begin gradually migrating westward on friday. Expect another two days of showers and thunderstorms, initiating across the higher terrain, and tracking southeast across the plains. PWAT values remain elevated, and southeasterly flow will keep dewpoints elevated across the plains. SHEAR remain weak during this period, which will help keep thunderstorms sub-severe, however, a few may produce small hail and strong winds. The main concern will once again be precipitation efficiency. Flash flooding will remain possible both days, especially on the aspen acres burn scar. Do not let your guard down if you are in or near the burn scar through friday! Temperatures will be hot on thursday with 90S to a few lower 100S on the plains, while the san luis valley sees 80S. A cold front arrives on friday, with a few degrees of cooling, but will still be hot. Showers and thunderstorms will spread east into the plains during the evening and overnight hours, clearing the state by the early morning hours.
Saturday into monday...the upper ridge continues ot retrograde west over the weekend, while and upper trough moves across the northern rockies into the northern plains. PWAT values really dry out over the weekend, to near 0.5 to 0.8 inches. This will likely limit thunderstorm coverage over the weekend into monday. Temperatures will also warm during this period, with 90S across the plains saturday, with widespread lower 100S sunday into monday. While it will be drier, isolated to scattered convection across the higher terrain will still be possible. Lightning will be of concern along with gusty outflow winds. With PWAT values coming down, precipitation efficiency also diminishes. Burn scars will need to be monitored.
Tuesday and wednesday...models diverge for early to mid next week, with some guidance suggesting a return of elevated moisture and heavy rainfall. Most guidance agrees, a cold front from the trough passing to the north arriving on tuesday, with increased moisture and the potential for heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also cool slightly with mostly 90S forecast across the region.
Issued at 1052 PM MDT tue jul 28 2026
Kcos, kpub, and kals: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. With that said though, heavy monsoonal thunderstorms tomorrow may bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions to all three taf sites as visibility quickly drops in heavy rain. In addition, these storms may bring strong outflow winds up tot around 35 knots and frequent lightning. Outside of thunderstorms, the winds is expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, with pockets of mid to high level clouds persisting through much of this taf period.