Weather Lookup

Key Messages

- moist southwest flow will bring waves of showers and thunderstorms through thursday, with a heavy rainfall/flash flood risk for the mountains, especially the eastern san juans.

- more westerly flow brings better chances for showers/storms to the eastern mountains/i-25 corridor and southeast plains friday through sunday.

- potentially warmer and drier into the middle of next week.

Short Term — Through Tonight

Issued at 134 AM MDT wed sep 16 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest southwest flow aloft in place across the region, with a large upper high centered across the gulf coast states, as an upper trough is digging across the pacific northwest coast at this time. Goes total precipitable water imagery indicates abundant subtropical moisture in place from old mexico into the desert southwest and great basin region, as well as the southern rockies into the central high plains at this time. Regional radars are indicating ongoing showers and storms western colorado spreading across the contdvd, along with some showers lifting out across northeastern new mexico into the southeast plains early this morning.

For today and tonight, latest model data supports modest and moist southwest flow continuing across the central rockies, with an embedded wave lifting out across the desert southwest through the afternoon, which continues across the four corners and western colorado into tonight. This will keep the best instability and forcing along and west of the contdvd through the period, with a few orographic showers continuing along the contdvd through the early morning hours, and another round of widespread showers and storms expected late this morning and afternoon, with storms continuing along and west of the contdvd through the overnight hours. With the abundant moisture within the southwest flow, rounds of heavy rainfall are expected, especially across the orographically favored san juan mtns and into the upper rio grande valley, where a flood watch goes into effect at noon today, and continues into thursday night.

With the abundant moisture and modest instability expected, will see another around of scattered to numerous showers and storms across the rest of the higher terrain this afternoon and evening as well, with moderate to at times heavy rainfall expected with the passing storms. With that said, will need to monitor the recent willow and aspen acres burn areas for the potential for flash flooding, however, we continue to not have enough confidence in said flooding to support to additional flood watches for the burn areas at this time.

Further east across the i-25 corridor and into the southeast plains, latest model data indicates mid level warming keeping convection capped through the afternoon, with the best chances of storms popping along a developing lee trough across the raton mesa into central portions of the plains through the late afternoon and evening.

Long Term — Thursday Through Tuesday

Issued at 134 AM MDT wed sep 16 2026

Moist southwest flow aloft continues on thursday, with the best forcing remaining across the eastern great basin into western colorado leading around round of heavy rain expected along and west of the contdvd once again, with the flood watch remaining in place for the eastern san juan mtns and the upper rio grande valley. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected once again for the rest of higher terrain, with the potential for flash flooding if storms can move across the recent burn areas. Further east, despite temperatures warming into the upper 70S to upper 80S across the plains, latest models continue to suggest mid level warmth to keep most convection capped through the afternoon and evening.

For friday and saturday, flow aloft becomes more westerly as the pac NW upper trough translates across the intermountain west and the northern rockies through saturday. While some drier air works across the region within the westerly flow, there looks to be enough uvv with embedded passing waves to support scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms to all of south central and southeast colorado, both days.

There remains some differences in the amount of drying and location and timing of the passing northern rockies wave for the weekend, with nbm keeping cooler temperatures and good chances of showers and storms across the area on sunday and monday, with potentially warmer and drier conditions developing under a building upper level ridge into the middle of next week.

Aviation — 18Z Tafs Through 18Z Thursday

Issued at 1157 AM MDT wed sep 16 2026

At kals, VFR early this afternoon, then fairly widespread shra/tsra activity begins to develop after 20Z. Best chance for a tsra will be in the 21Z-03Z timeframe, with reduced cigs/vis due to heavy rain and gusty winds over 30 KTS possible. Still a chance of an occasional shra through much of the night into thu morning, with areas of MVFR cigs possible overnight as well.

At kcos and kpub, VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Will carry a prob30 for a shra at both sites mainly this evening, as weakening convection moves east off the high terrain. Limited instability should reduce the risk of -tsra this afternoon and evening, with just a low chance (10-20 percent) of thunder. Otherwise, mid/high level clouds will slowly increase, with VFR cigs developing overnight into thu morning. Prevailing winds will remain relatively light through the period, though some briefly gusty/erratic winds possible in/near any convection.