Radar — KARX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: 2nd Street Southwest (Primary)
- widespread rain today and tuesday with a moderate (40 - 80%) chance at seeing at least 1" of rain, especially in areas south of i-90 and north of i-94.
- above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 50S to mid 60S today and tuesday, trend slightly cooler for the rest of the week with highs in the mid 50S.
Issued at 1207 AM CST mon nov 2 2026
Today - thursday: widespread rain
The forecast remains largely on track for widespread rain today as near maximum naefs percentile pwats (1.4 to 1.7") push northward into the region and combine with lift from a shortwave trough and accompanying surface low developing in the northern plains. Initial rainfall arrives locally in western peripheral counties of southeast minnesota by mid-morning, becoming more widespread by late morning. Rainfall persists into tuesday as another wave pushes north, reinvigorating low-level flow and accompanying surge of moisture. The latest trends, however, that are supported by the ECMWF and GFS and their respective ensemble and ai ensemble models, continue to show that this moisture surge just misses most of the local forecast area, with the exception of portions of northeast iowa and far southwest wisconsin. What this means is that while rain will continue through the day on tuesday, the heaviest amounts stay to our south.
Another forecast trend is decreasing rainfall amounts. Convective allowing and global models agree that the bulk of the moisture remains northwest of the local forecast area monday, and northwest/south for tuesday. As a result, the probabilities for 1" of rain continue to decrease. Currently the best chance for seeing at least 1" of rain from this morning through wednesday morning are for areas south of i-90 and areas north of i-94 (40 to 70%). Within these areas, total rain amounts are generally in the 0.75 to 1.25" ranges and outside of these locations it is 0.5 to 0.75". While there are still some ensemble members that have higher totals closer to 1-2", higher outliers have continued to decrease over the past couple of days.
More rain chances (30 to 60%) wednesday and thursday are from the upper-level low situated over the region. Temperatures for today and tuesday remain in the mid 60S with near record warm low temperatures for tonight with temperatures in the mid 50S to even some low 60S. Due to the cloud coverage, ongoing rain, and persistent warm air advection, temperatures for tonight will not differ that much from the high temperatures for today or tuesday. Current forecasted low temperatures at klse and krst are 61 degrees and 59 degrees respectively. Both these temperatures would not only be daily warm low records but they would also be the monthly warm low record for both locations.
Late week: trending drier with above normal temperatures
Zonal flow takes over through saturday before another wave dips down into the upper midwest. Current cluster analyses show 80% of ensemble solutions supporting a troughing solution, differing by location and magnitude, while the other 20% suggests troughing farther south through the southern plains. Therefore, subsequent local rainfall chances across the region after thursday. With the area under zonal flow, high temperatures look to remain above normal with highs generally in the low to mid 50S and lows in the mid 30S to low 40S.
Issued at 1147 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
Aviation impacts are gradually shifting east on surface observations towards the forecast area, affecting local airports in southeast minnesota (krst, kaum, kfka, ktob) at 02.06Z taf issuance. Expect these MVFR ceilings to continue spreading east through the overnight hours, eventually affecting the entire forecast area by daybreak monday. Concurrent further lowering of ceilings into IFR expected through monday morning ahead of increasing precipitation chances from west to east through monday. While ts is possible, spatial coverage and confidence remains forecast challenge and therefore haven't included at either taf site but will be a concern that could require inclusion at 02.12Z taf issuance.
Precipitation impacts expected to linger mainly from northeast iowa through southwest, west-central, and central wisconsin for much of the 02.06Z taf period. Potential for on/off precipitation impacts to linger through entire period at klse although current confidence later in the period removes mention for monday night. Confidence does again increase as the responsible pressure system lifts northeast through the area, guaranteeing return of ra mention to klse after 02.06Z taf terminus.
Current confidence for IFR ceilings to linger across the forecast area affecting both taf sites (klse/krst) through the taf period and after terminus. Besides some temporary lifting of ceilings through tuesday morning and night current forecast expectations are for IFR ceilings to linger through wednesday and potentially wednesday night.