Radar — KBUF
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: West Main Street (Primary)
Minimal changes with this update.
1) warm and dry today. Showers possible tonight and tuesday.
2) unseasonably mild wednesday, unsettled weather returns thursday.
Key message 1...warm and dry today. Showers possible tonight and tuesday.
Weak shortwave trough moving through the flow aloft is producing some light showers or sprinkles across ohio. This system will virtually have little to no impact on our area other than the introduction of some mid/high cloudiness.
Otherwise...mild and mainly dry weather again today as high pressure along the mid atlantic coastline will continue to influence the eastern great lakes. Highs will be found in the 60S to low 70S in the warmest spots.
A deep mid-level trough and complex elongated surface low over the midwest will nudge its warm frontal segment through the region. Weak isentropic lift and increasing moisture will support scattered showers across western ny tonight through tuesday morning, and across north-central ny late tuesday morning through tuesday afternoon. That said...the best chances will remain to our west and north-northwest. This is where the best forcing associated with the llj will be found.
Otherwise...another warm day will be on tap tuesday with max t's will again peak in the 60S to low 70S.
Key message 2...unseasonably mild wednesday, unsettled weather returns thursday.
A deep southerly flow behind the front will pump in a much milder airmass tuesday night into wednesday. This will send h850 t's up to +13c to +15c. This will support max t's solidly in the 70S, with some locales potentially nearing 80f.
A deep mid-level trough and low over the midwest will move to eastern canada late in the work week. Deep southerly flow will transport moisture from the gulf northward along the approaching cold front to our west. Forcing along the front interacting with a wealth of moisture will support medium to high confidence for showers wednesday night into thursday. This will provide some relief to the recent dry spell, however confidence in rainfall amounts remains on the low side. Cooler air will build into the region from west to east on thursday, however it will remain warm especially from the finger lakes region into north-central ny. Cooler weather, although still above normal is expected friday into the weekend.
Surface high pressure along the the mid-atlantic coastline will support VFR at all terminals today.
Outlook...
Monday night...mainly VFR with a few showers possible overnight.
Tuesday...mainly VFR. A few scattered showers possible.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...restrictions possible with showers likely.
Friday...restrictions possible in scattered showers.
A strong surface high centered over the mid atlantic coastline will slowly drift out to sea through tuesday. Light to modest south to southwesterly flow will prevail through tuesday. Southerly flow will strengthen some wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. This may produce some modest chop on area lakes but remain below small craft levels.
Dry weather and mild weather to continue today. This will maintain very dry fine fuels and leaf litter. There is a chance of showers tonight and tuesday but dry weather will resume wednesday, unsettled weather potentially returns thursday.