Radar — KBUF
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: West Main Street (Primary)
Lowered precipitation chances across far western new york through wednesday.
1) rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall/flooding possible across parts of the finger lakes/north country into tonight.
2) increasingly drier conditions return for the end of the work week.
Key message 1...rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall/flooding possible across parts of the finger lakes/north country into tonight.
Latest surface analysis shows a broad surface low/cold front extending from southern ontario southwestward across far western new york and western pennsylvania. This system will continue to slowly wobble its way eastward and reach an upper saint lawrence valley- central new york axis by early this evening...before devolving into a remnant inverted trough that will slowly drift across eastern new york tonight and wednesday as secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the mid-atlantic coastline. Overall...the guidance suite has trended a little faster and further east with the timing and the positioning of this system over the last 24 hours.
Shower coverage has decreased significantly this evening, with just a few widely scattered showers left across the southern tier, finger lakes, and east of lake ontario. While coverage as decreased, there will still be a few brief/local downpours.
As the surface low/front drifts across central eastern new york and weakens tonight the axis of deepest moisture will be shunted off to our east...and this in tandem with the loss of heating will bring an end to the potential for heavy rainfall along with a general decrease in shower potential/coverage. This being said...these will still not end entirely due to the presence of lingering wraparound moisture and a cyclonic northerly upslope flow that should help to keep at least some scattered showers in place...particularly for areas east of the genesee valley. Meanwhile...the driest overall conditions will be found across northern/western portions of the niagara frontier.
On wednesday the remnant inverted trough will linger across eastern new york...while aloft the core of the supporting upper level low will slowly meander its way directly across new york state. Diurnal heating underneath the upper low's attendant cool pool will result in leftover wraparound/upslope showers from the nighttime hours transitioning to more diurnally-driven showers and a few isolated thunderstorms as we push through the day...particularly from the genesee valley/western finger lakes eastward where better/deeper moisture will be in place. Meanwhile across far western new york relatively drier air should help to keep shower coverage considerably more sparse...with mainly dry weather tending to prevail much of the time.
Key message 2...increasingly drier conditions return for the end of the work week.
Wednesday night through friday the upper level low and surface wave will make their way northeastward into the canadian maritimes... While ridging at the surface and aloft settles across the central and eastern great lakes. While lingering moisture and renewed diurnal heating may still be enough to support some scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two across the north country and interior portions of the finger lakes on thursday...by friday the aforementioned ridging and associated drying should be sufficient for a dry day areawide. With the departure of the upper low and its associated cool pool...high temps should also recover to seasonable levels (upper 70S to lower 80S) areawide by the end of the work week.
An upper level low will continue to move southeast across central and eastern ny tonight through wednesday, maintaining unsettled weather across much of the region. Showers have diminished in coverage this evening, with just a few widely scattered showers across the southern tier, finger lakes, and east of lake ontario. Localized showers may still produce downpours and brief vsby restrictions.
Overnight through wednesday morning, most of the showers will tend to focus from the genesee valley eastward across central ny and the eastern lake ontario region where the deepest moisture is found. Low level moisture and northerly upslope flow will promote the development and expansion of low stratus late tonight through wednesday morning, with widespread MVFR across the lower elevations of western ny and IFR across the higher terrain of the southern tier, finger lakes, and east of lake ontario. Some of the stratus may intersect the higher terrain and produce hilltop fog/mountain obscuration late tonight through wednesday morning.
Showers will continue through the day wednesday, especially across the finger lakes and east of lake ontario. Meanwhile, the far western end of the state will likely be mainly dry with just a few isolated showers possible. Cigs will be slow to improve, but will eventually become VFR across western ny, while MVFR and higher terrain IFR linger from the finger lakes to the eastern lake ontario region.
Outlook...
Thursday...areas of MVFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to VFR in the afternoon. Scattered showers, mainly across the finger lakes and east of lake ontario.
Friday through saturday...VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Showers likely with a chance of a few thunderstorms.
A broad surface low/cold front extending from southern ontario southwestward across far western new york will continue to slowly wobble its way eastward and reach an upper saint lawrence valley- central new york axis by early this evening. This system will then devolve into a remnant inverted trough and slowly drift across eastern new york tonight and wednesday as secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the mid- atlantic coastline.
On the backside of this system...a moderately brisk northerly to flow will develop late today and tonight...and this should lead to the development of lower-end sca-level conditions along the south shores of both lakes. Winds and wave action will then gradually diminish from west to east wednesday through thursday...though locally choppy conditions may still linger along the south shore of lake ontario into thursday morning.