Radar — KCXX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: US-7 (Primary)
As of 236 PM EDT saturday...
No significant changes.
As of 236 PM EDT saturday...
1. Expect a warming trend and mainly dry weather through the next several days.
2. Gusty winds mid week followed by a cold front late week.
As of 236 PM EDT saturday...
Key message 1: temperatures today are running just a little below seasonal norms for halloween, with chilly 850 millibar temperatures in the -4 to -6 celsius range close to where a subsidence inversion is present east of a ridge of high pressure. This is where our shallow clouds are, and the prevalence of stratocumulus this afternoon has been much more widespread than modeled. In turn, maximum temperatures are going to underachieve a bit in many areas with highs mainly in the low to mid 40S. That said, this should have little bearing on tonight's temperatures. In fact, have noted the national blend of models (nbm) looks perhaps too cold with influence of recent warm bias correction during a dry and calm pattern. Have nudged temperatures a touch warmer noting some lingering breezes and position of high pressure south of the region rather than overhead, but otherwise clearing skies and decoupling in most locations should result in a cold start to november.
Thereafter, nearly continuous warm air advection is expected from the west and southwest, leading to above normal temperatures sunday through tuesday. Through this period, the warmest air will remain to our west so we're not looking at anything unusually warm. Any potential rain will be tied to the trajectory of a feed of deep moisture/decaying atmospheric river entering the southwestern US tonight. Some of the moisture will rapidly push northeastward as a deep trough lifts across the rockies and a colorado low forms tomorrow night. The storm track will be quite amplified/stay well to our west through midweek and anomalous moisture stays to our north. Trends have continued to suggest that the polar jet gets absorbed into this system by tuesday morning while high pressure builds back over our region following slightly enhanced gradient flow on monday.
However, frontal forcing for light rain may make its closest approach tuesday afternoon, as some low level moisture gets pulled northward around the ridge of high pressure centered over the western mid-atlantic region to support increasing rain chances. In any case, where clouds wind up being thick and persistent, temperatures will end up being a bit lower than currently forecast. Greatest chances of the cooler/cloudier scenario is over the northern st. Lawrence valley, and secondarily across north central/northeastern vermont and the remainder of northern new york. Otherwise, most likely highs both monday and tuesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the upper 50S to mid 60S.
Key message 2: the next significant weather maker will be a large trough / cold front late next week. Models are coming into agreement that the trough will come off the rocky mountains on tuesday or wednesday and begin to develop into a large area of low pressure over the plains. The timing and intensity of this front remains highly questionable, as it will need to work around a ridge of high pressure off the atlantic coast. The current thinking is we'll see winds ramp up on wednesday and thursday as the pressure gradient between the ridge and trough tightens. The setup favors channeled flow into the champlain valley, with southerly winds bringing gusts up to 30MPH. The main low pressure system will then slide into the northeast sometime between friday and next sunday. The GFS solution has the low moving quicker, with less intensity while the euro is showing the low becoming more pronounced and bringing precipitation to northern new york and vermont through sunday. We do have some time before the impacts arrive and will continue to update the forecast as the forecast comes into focus.
Through 00Z monday...VFR through the forecast period with no precipitation expected as high pressure continues to build into the region. Lingering sct/bkn cigs in the 035-060 agl range to trend skc at all terminals in the 00-06Z time frame under light and variable winds. Skc conditions continue through sunday with winds trending light south to southwesterly from 4-8 KTS by afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday night: VFR. No sig wx. Monday: VFR. No sig wx. Monday night: VFR. No sig wx. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance shra. Tuesday night: VFR. Slight chance shra. Wednesday: VFR. No sig wx. Wednesday night: VFR. Chance shra. Thursday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.