Radar — KSHV
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: Clyde Fant Memorial Parkway (Secondary)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
- areas of light rainfall will continue pushing northeast across the arklatex, tapering off overnight tonight from west to east, with dry and warmer conditions sunday and monday.
- rain will return late monday, continuing through the day tuesday. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding development. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.
- behind the cold front, more seasonable temperatures will prevail through the end of the work week, with highs in the 70S and lows in the 40S.
Issued at 1253 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Scattered showers continue to trek from southwest to northeast across the arklatex this afternoon. Rain rates have been light to moderate with limited accumulations of up to a few tenths of an inch so far. As the grey, cloudy daytime fades to twilight on this all hallows eve, this primary impulse of moisture is expected to be in the process of departing to the northeast. As of this writing, there is only isolated additional convection to our southwest preparing to move into the region. However, the latest HRRR and NAM 3km both keep conditions fairly rainy into the evening, which seems to be a result of struggling to capture the timing of today's moisture. That being said, enough signals point to a push of additional showers across our south and east into the evening to carry chc pops overnight for our easternmost zones. This trend looks reasonably favorable for our trick-or-treaters to have the opportunity to get outside this evening, though being prepared with an umbrella and ready to dodge showers and drizzle would still be advisable.
The bulk of today's rainfall will have exited the region overnight, though a few lingering showers are possible sunday morning across our easternmost zones. As we turn back the clocks, temperatures will drop into the middle 50S north to lower 60S south, quickly rebounding into the lower 80S sunday afternoon amidst drier conditions and clearing skies under upper level ridging extending from texas over the ouachitas and ozarks before sweeping eastward into monday as our next weathermaker approaches.
The next chance of rain for the arklatex looks on track to begin monday evening overnight into tuesday. The longwave trough pushing onshore this afternoon will advance eastwards over the next tow days, deepening as it does so, with an axis extending from the canadian border down the front range to new mexico. By monday evening, the leading edge of the trough will be pushing across central oklahoma and north texas, where the best chance for severe development exists, along the i-35 corridor. As has lately been the story, confidence in storms remaining strong to severe eastward into the arklatex is not there at this time.
However, trends do look favorable for periods of heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding monday night and through the day tuesday. While much-needed relief from the current drought would be welcome, our prolonged dry conditions have resulted in very dry soils which will struggle to absorb rainfall at first, increasing the degree of initial runoff. Small streams and areas of poor drainage may be vulnerable, with urban flash flooding also a possibility.
Tuesday's showers and storms will taper off overnight into wednesday morning. Long range synoptic scale guidance suggests a secondary low will eject east across the plains thursday, which may kick up a few additional showers, but pops remain low at this point. Otherwise, dry conditions look to prevail through the end of the week ahead. Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near- seasonable values, with highs in the 70S and lows in the 40S through the end of this extended forecast period.
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(00Z tafs) issued at 724 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
For the 01/00Z taf period, conditions are expected to deteriorate this evening and overnight with low stratus cigs returning across our entire airspace. In addition, the abundant low-level moisture trapped beneath a growing inversion will support fog development after 01/06Z with areas of dense fog possible closer to daybreak. For now, have trended all tafs toward IFR/LIFR cigs and IFR vsby restrictions to account for these expected trends over the next 12-18 hours. Some patchy light rain and drizzle also cannot be ruled out early in the period, but coverage should be minimal. Beyond that, slow but gradual improvement should result in MVFR to low VFR cigs returning toward midday on sunday along with fog lifting/dissipating. Winds will remain mostly light and variable around 5 KTS or less throughout the taf period.
Issued at 1253 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
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Shv 61 81 63 82 / 20 0 0 0 mlu 63 82 64 83 / 50 30 10 10 deq 55 81 57 83 / 40 10 0 10 txk 58 80 60 82 / 30 10 0 0 eld 57 81 59 82 / 40 20 10 0 tyr 61 82 64 84 / 10 0 0 0 ggg 59 82 61 84 / 10 0 0 0 lfk 61 84 63 84 / 10 0 0 0