Radar — KFSD
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
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- light to moderate rain showers will spread across the entire region through the overnight. Rain will lessen briefly monday afternoon before increasing again from west to east overnight into tuesday morning. Low stratus may lead to visibility lowering to 2 miles or less at times.
- severe weather is not anticipated at this time. However, some isolated funnels are possible monday afternoon.
- by the time rain ends wednesday afternoon, widespread accumulations of 0.50 to 1.00 inches are expected for most of the region. Along and north of a line from chamberlain, mitchell, and brookings will see the highest totals, up to 1.5 inches with isolated 2+ inch pockets possible.
- gusty winds are expected on both monday and tuesday with widespread gusts of 30-35 MPH. Locally higher gusts of 40-45 MPH will be possible, mainly through eastern south dakota.
Issued at 942 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
Current radar is showing weak echos (<25 dbz) across much of western and central south dakota. Looking aloft we see southwesterly flow, the exit region of a jet streak, and overall divergence. To the west over the rockies we see a deep upper trough and a lee surface low pressure forming over eastern co, western ks and NE. The whole system will accelerate northeast through the overnight with a trailing cold front. Strong and deep warm air and moisture advection from the surface through the mid-levels will help to thicken and lower stratus over the region. Though winds will be too strong for true fog formation, soundings indicate the boundary layer will saturate to nearly the surface. Ensemble guidance indicates a 20-40% probability for visibility to fall to 2 miles or less at times through monday morning. Frontogenesis in the mid- levels intensifies as does the surface pressure gradient. A very strong 50-60 KT llj will result. With ample forcing for ascent the current light showers will gradually intensify to light to moderate rain showers with isolated thunderstorms possible. Severe weather concerns are low at this point, with less than a 5% probability. Though 0-6km bulk SHEAR is sufficient at 35-40 KTS, moderate to strong capping is in place, lapse rates are weak at 6 deg c/km or less, and instability is low at just 100-500 j/kg. Still, a few stronger thunderstorms could produce brief heavy rainfall. Additionally, with very low lcls and enhanced vorticity and stretching potential a few funnels are possible in the afternoon.
In addition to showers and thunderstorms winds will increase overnight, becoming strong by mid-monday morning. Winds will be southeast sustained at 20-25 MPH and gusts 30-35 MPH. A few gusts up to 40 MPH are possible, mainly along the sd/NE border. Strongest winds will be east of the james river, and west of i-29.
Light to moderate rainfall is expected to continue through the overnight into monday morning. Shortly after daybreak there are indications that a dry slot may begin to slide into south central south dakota. As this progresses northeast with the whole system, showers will become light and more scattered in nature. Periodically changing to drizzle or ceasing altogether. Scattered light showers and drizzle continue through monday afternoon. By monday evening wrap around showers begin to enter the western portions of our cwa. This round of showers will be lighter than the previous but will move slowly through the region, ending wednesday afternoon. By the time rain ends total accumulation will range from 0.50 up to 1.00 inches for most of the cwa. Areas along and north of line from chamberlain, mitchell, and brookings will see the highest totals up to 1.5 inches. Nbm 75th percentile indicates pockets of 2+ inches are possible in this area, should stronger storms develop or move slower than anticipated.
Issued at 218 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
Currents & tonight: taking a look across the area, a dreary start to november continues as areas of low stratus and mid-level clouds sit over the area. While some thinning and southeast surface winds may help temperatures sneak into the upper 50S to mid 60S this afternoon, should see holes fill back in by this evening as warm air advection (waa) strengthens. Similar to last night, decided the dynamics at play will likely slow cooling overnight so used a blend of the consshort and nbm to slightly increase temperatures to the mid to upper 50S. From here, the focus will then shifts towards the increasing rain chances (70%-100%) this evening and overnight. Looking aloft, a strengthening nocturnal llj along with increasing lift ahead of the approaching wave will likely spur bands of light showers starting this evening. Lastly, the spg will continue to tighten heading into monday morning leading to gusts between 30-40 MPH throughout the day. With this the stage is set for monday's colorado low.
Monday-wednesday: looking into the new week, we're still on track for widespread rain on monday as the developing colorado low lifts into central and eastern sodak from the nebraska panhandle. From here, not much has changed on the forecast front. Bands of light to moderate showers will develop during the morning hours giving US most of our accumulations. Still can't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms mainly across areas along and east of highway-81 as about 300-500 j/kg of instability develops. A dry slot will gradually progress across the area from late morning to early evening potentially switching US over to drizzle or just mostly dry conditions temporarily. Next round of precipitation comes by tuesday morning as the 850mb cold front and surface low progress through the area. Depending on how and if things develop around the surface low during this time, we might have to be on the look out for a few funnels given the enhanced stretching potential with the low and lower lcls. This is particularly evident in the NAM and rap13 nst which has scattered values in the 0.5 to 1.5 range.
A tight spg will continue to promote breezy to strong surface winds on tuesday with northwesterly winds behind the front producing gusts between 30-40 MPH with isolated higher across southcentral sd. Otherwise, should see light showers hang around for most of tuesday and into potentially wednesday as the mid-level low continues to gradually rotate eastwards into minnesota. Shifting gears to overall amounts, some lingering uncertainty remain on where the heaviest accumulations will occur. However, guidance has shown consistent enough signals for a widespread 0.75" to 1.25" inches through at least tuesday. Nonetheless, there still could be an area of slightly higher amounts (1"-2"+) potentially west of a gregory to mitchell to de smet line depending on how the low tracks through the region. Impact-wise, lower precipitation rates will keep the flooding concerns on the lower side through the period though localized ponding will be possible in the area of heaviest accumulation and low-lying spots. Lastly, the increased precipitation chances will trend conditions cooler through wednesday. As a result, highs are expected to tumble from the 60S to low 70S on monday to mid 40S to low 50S by wednesday.
Thursday onwards: heading into the later parts of the week, quieter conditions return by thursday as mid-level ridging progresses through the region. Next potential rain chances return by saturday as a quick and compact wave dives across the northern plains. Otherwise, daily temperatures will continue to hover in a more seasonable range with highs mainly in the low to mid 50S and overnight lows in the upper 30S to low 40S.
Issued at 1127 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
A mix of VFR down to LIFR ceilings will prevail for the first half of this period. Ceilings will continue to degrade to mainly IFR with periods of LIFR under showers and thunderstorms. Soundings indicate stratus will slowly lower as the boundary layer saturates, down to near the surface. Though winds will likely remain too strong for true fog formation, ensemble guidance indicates a 20-40% probability that visibility may fall to 2 miles or less at times.
Light to moderate rain showers currently located west of i-29 will continue to move northeast through the overnight. A few stronger storms may produce lightning and brief heavy down pours. Severe weather is not anticipated. A dry slot pivots through the region beginning around mid-day over south central south dakota. Showers and storms will lessen in intensity to light rain/sprinkles to drizzle, if not ceasing all together at times. During the afternoon ceilings are likely to improve back to MVFR before another round of wrap around showers moves in monday evening.
Southeasterly winds are expected to increase overnight. By mid- morning winds will be gusting 25-35 KTS with the strongest gusts east of the james river valley and west of i-29. Gusty winds decrease temporarily ahead of the approaching cold front monday evening.