Weather Lookup

What Has Changed

* no significant changes

Key Messages

1) lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early november before coming to an end by late next week.

Discussion

Key message 1: lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early november before coming to an end by late next week

Another day of mainly clear skies with light winds today as high pressure remains in place across the region. Most locations will see high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 50S, though parts of south-central pa should reach the low 60S. With model soundings showing a layer of dry air above a weak inversion, expect dew points to drop somewhat this afternoon. The magnitude of the drop remains uncertain, but we should see rh values fall into the 35 to 45 percent range.

Dry weather continues for sunday though mid and high clouds will be on the increase thanks to an area of warm advection associated with a weak shortwave approaching from the west. Moisture appears to be very limited with this disturbance as it moves through on monday, so we will continue to show a dry forecast. Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of the coming week.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the end of the week as a complex system develops over the middle of the country. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern that will lead to the development of this system, but confidence continues to increase in our dry streak coming to and end by thursday and friday.

Aviation — 00Z Sunday Through Thursday

VFR conditions are virtually certain through 00Z monday, with the only chance for sub-VFR conditions coming in the 09-13Z sunday timeframe across our eastern terminals (ipt/MDT/lns). At this time, restrictions continue to be most likely in the form of fog/low stratus given some potential for breaks in the high- level cloud deck and/or slower eastward progression of the cloud deck. Href ensemble probabilities continue to outline highest chances (~20-30%) at ipt/lns, with glamp also outlining ~10-20% probabilities of this scenario unfolding overnight. The main concern is that fog would have to contend with some low-level dry air based on rap model soundings. Based on this, have continued to hold stout with vcfg mentions with lower-level scattered cloud decks at ipt in the timeframe where restrictions will be possible.

Outlook...

Mon-tue...AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-thu...rain showers, especially in the PM hours on wednesday and continuing into thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in showers.