Radar — KTYX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: East Genesee Street (Primary)
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
1) warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through midweek.
2) there is potential for widespread rain chances thursday into friday as a frontal system moves through. Temperatures will trend cooler into the weekend.
Key message 1...
Conditions will be warm and largely dry through midweek thanks to a building ridge of high pressure and a strong southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will rise into the 60S and low 70S this afternoon with sunshine mixed with some mid and high level clouds. Well above average temperatures more synonymous with mid- to-late september will continue through midweek along with mild nights. The peak of the warmth is expected to occur wednesday with 850mb temperatures between 12c and 15c and highs range from the upper 60S to the mid 70S. A bit of a breeze is expected to become more noticeable moving into wednesday night and thursday with an increasing pressure gradient over the region.
While conditions will be rain-free for most during the first half of the week, some showers cannot be ruled out on tuesday. A surface low pressure system will move over the upper midwest later monday. Extending from the low will be a warm front that partially lifts through the region. Depending on the placement of the front, some passing showers will be possible during the day on tuesday, mainly across the finger lakes region and northern portions of central ny.
Key message 2...
The aforementioned surface low will push a cold front through the region late in the week. Showers are expected to move in on thursday and continue into friday. While the front may not fully depart the region friday as a another low pressure system forms over the atlantic, the supporting upper trough is expected to move from the west helping to keep the chance for showers around to end the work week. Guidance does suggest that a dry slot will also move into the region on friday, which can lead to a lull in the wet weather, especially during the midday and afternoon.
With a lingering upper low and the flow becoming more northwesterly to start the weekend saturday, some additional light rain showers are possible.
Following the frontal system late in the week, temperatures will trend cooler into the weekend. Even so, temperatures will generally remain above average for this time of year.
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours.
Outlook...
Monday night through wednesday night...mainly VFR.
Thursday through friday...scattered showers may bring occasional restrictions.