Radar — KTWX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
- intermittent showers and thunderstorms through thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out though severe weather potential is quite low, rising a bit thursday night.
- not as hot today through friday. Cooler yet this weekend.
Issued at 237 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80S, and only isolated showers noted on radar, with most locations remaining dry through early evening.
Cams continue to show a line of showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight into early wednesday morning along the nose of a developing low-level jet, generally along and south of a line from belleville to manhattan, topeka and ottawa. Severe storms are not favored with a decoupled boundary layer and lack of SHEAR, but occasional gusty winds are possible due to precip loading and stronger downdrafts potentially pushing through the inversion. Additionally, heavy rain is possible with pwats in excess of 2.25 inches and potential training of thunderstorms. While flooding is not widely expected with less focused lift and a more scattered storm mode, training of storms could lead to some localized flooding.
Beyond tonight, guidance keeps highs near seasonal normals in the upper 80S to near 90 through the remainder of the work week with periodic low-end showers and thunderstorm chances as weak disturbances ride northwest flow aloft. A stronger cold front is favored to swing through thursday night into friday. This is likely our best chance at more widespread rain and stronger storms.
Issued at 1220 AM CDT wed jul 29 2026
Uncertainties remain in regards to timing and coverage of showers/storms this morning. Confidence has increased in at least some precipitation impacting kmhk with lower confidence at ktop/kfoe. There is a low potential for fog or low cigs this morning as well, especially if cloud cover is less than anticipated. Precipitation may linger through much of the daytime hours, but confidence in impacts to terminals is low.