Weather Lookup

Key Messages

Updated at 1233 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026

- rain chances continue through saturday, spreading west to east before tapering off saturday evening/night. - shower and storm chances increase monday into tuesday, a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat exists monday afternoon/night.

- a cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to seasonal average midweek.

Short Term

(through tonight) issued at 1233 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026

Scattered showers will continue through much of the afternoon, especially for locations north of i-40 as a mid level wave slowly lifts northeast through the region. Rainfall amounts will generally remain light, with amounts near a quarter of an inch possible across northeast oklahoma. Rain chances will gradually shift eastward through the latter half of the afternoon and this evening, exiting northwest arkansas later this evening. Lighting potential remain pretty low, though a few isolated lighting strike will be possible, mainly across far southeast oklahoma into west central arkansas later this afternoon as meager elevated instability develops. Expect at least some patchy fog or drizzle to develop through the overnight periods owing to the increase in low level moisture across the region. The best potential for dense fog formations looks to reside across western parts of the forecast area where some short term clearing could occur later tonight.

Bowlan

Long Term

(tomorrow through saturday) issued at 1233 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026

A lull in activity is expected on sunday as weak mid level ridging builds in between mid level systems. Partly cloudy skies will allow for temperatures to warm more sunday afternoon, back into the mid to upper 70S for most locations.

Focus will then turn to the next storm system slated to affect the area later in the day monday through monday night into tuesday. A robust upper low is currently moving onshore over the pacific northwest and will work its way south and east into the plains by monday afternoon. This system will link up with a plume of tropical moisture from the tropical eastern pacific, drawing ample moisture northward over the plains during the day monday and monday night. A surface low is progged to develop and deepen across the high plains of eastern colorado monday morning and track northeastward into the northern plains by monday night. A cold front will extend southward from this surface low across much of the southern plains and track eastward into monday night. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to strong winds and wind gusts during the day monday, with gusts near 40MPH possible across northeast oklahoma monday afternoon. Some shower or elevated thunderstorm activity will be possible during the day monday, mainly across northeast oklahoma, associated with a strong low level jet preceding the main trough, but chances appear sporadic at best right now. Recent model data and trends suggest a slow down of the upper trough and associated cold front as both hang back across western oklahoma into monday night. Thus storm chances have slowed down some, with chances beginning to increase monday evening across northeast oklahoma and tracking eastward during the overnight hours. Strong deep layer SHEAR would be supportive of at least a limited severe threat, though questions remain on how much instability can develop ahead of the front, especially after sunset. Damaging wind gusts continue to be the primary threat, though all modes will be in play with ample low level SHEAR in place to support a tornado threat, primarily across eastern oklahoma.

Heavy rain will also be a threat with tropical moisture in place and localized areas of flash flooding will be possible in more flood prone locations. The trough axis and cold front should clear the region by tuesday afternoon, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass through much of the week. Temperatures will trend down closer to normal ranges with cooler morning and pleasant afternoon highs. Another quick moving wave moves across the area on thursday, but limited moisture will limit the rain chances with this system. Another, stronger system could be on tap for next weekend with more rain and storm chances, but significant model differences exists with the timing and evolution of this system currently.

Bowlan

Aviation

(00Z tafs) issued at 627 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026

Light to moderate showers continue to shift north and east across the area, impacting most taf sites at the moment. Surface obs around the area show a mixed bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions. As rain gradually exits the forecast area late this evening, patchy fog and drizzle are forecast to develop across the area. Thus, flight conditions are forecast to deteriorate further and trend more towards IFR/LIFR through the overnight period tonight with patchy fog and drizzle developing across the area. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve mid-late sunday morning and through the afternoon, becoming mostly VFR by mid-late afternoon.

Mejia

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops

Tul 61 75 61 79 / 20 10 0 40 fsm 61 77 61 81 / 60 10 0 10 mlc 61 77 61 81 / 20 0 0 10 bvo 59 74 56 78 / 30 10 0 60 fyv 58 75 54 76 / 70 10 0 10 byv 61 72 60 75 / 80 10 0 10 mko 58 75 59 80 / 20 0 0 10 mio 59 74 59 78 / 50 10 0 20 f10 58 77 60 80 / 20 0 0 20 hhw 62 79 61 82 / 10 0 0 10