Radar — KOKX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: West Main Street (Primary)
No significant changes.
1) shower chance for late thursday into thursday night.
2) dry and pleasant friday into the start of the weekend.
3) wet weather increasingly likely later in the weekend and possibly carrying into the first half of next week.
.key message 1...
High pressure over the area shifts offshore to the east allowing for a return S flow advecting moisture into the area late tonight into thursday. This may result in patchy fog into thursday morning as some locations are expected to cool fairly efficiently with a light and variable wind.
Heights begin to lower late thursday into thursday night with the approach of a cold front. There remains a the relatively higher chance of showers late in the day thursday and during thursday night. The consensus of the cam guidance continues to suggest that the activity initially will have difficulty holding together as it translates east, with any activity right along the cold front perhaps holding together some as it slides east. Essentially carried chance to slight chance pops from NW to SE very late in the day thu through thu night. The cold front is progged by nwp and ai consensus to get off the coast by 12Z friday morning. QPF output at this time remains rather light with generally less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall, though northernmost spots may end up with a more than a tenth of an inch.
.key message 2...
A cooler and drier airmass will gradually work in behind the cold front during the day friday and into friday night. Dewpoints are forecast the gradually fall through the 60S much of the day friday, and potentially into the middle and upper 40S later friday night. This would allow outlying areas to fall into the upper 40S and 50S with respect to minimum temperatures by saturday morning. With high pressure getting further east during saturday afternoon and a developing easterly flow daytime temperatures across portions of the area may struggle to get out of the upper 60S to begin the weekend.
.key message 3...
During saturday night, as high pressure departs the new england coast a warm front will approach from the west. This will bring more clouds saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards sunday morning. Currently carrying likely pops throughout the day sunday, with high end chance pops sunday night. Afterwards there is some question as to where the front ultimately locks up during the first half of next week with a suggestion that the front goes quasi- stationary. Some nwp deterministic runs have shown the front nudging to the south and allowing some high pressure to build from the north, while the consensus of nwp and ai guidance suggests the front remains nearby or at least close enough to bring an ongoing chance of showers / rain for monday through wednesday. Forecast confidence is below average at this time with uncertainty around the positioning of the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time period may average slightly below normal with guidance indicating an onshore easterly flow.
High pressure over the area slides offshore into tonight. A cold front approaches from the west on thursday.
VFR.
A light SW or S flow through the rest of today, with speeds around 10 KT or less. Winds lighten this evening, and may go variable at some terminals. S or SW flow resumes on thursday, speeds around 10 KT in the afternoon.
Approaching cold front could produce a few showers by late thursday afternoon, primarily at kswf. Chance for sub VFR conditions increases thursday evening as the showers spread east, mainly after 00Z fri.
...ny metro (kewr/klga/kjfk/kteb) taf uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the S/SE may vary by 1-2 hours.
.outlook for 12Z thursday through sunday...
Thursday: mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower well NW of the nyc metro in the afternoon, chance of showers and MVFR thursday night.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in the morning, VFR by afternoon.
Saturday night-sunday: showers possible sat night, then becoming likely on sunday with MVFR or lower possible.
Monday: MVFR or lower possible with chance for showers.
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/N90
High pressure slowly slides south of the region tonight into thursday. The pressure gradient will remain weak throughout this time frame with conditions remaining well below advisory levels. Towards late friday into friday night marginal small craft conditions may develop for portions of the ocean waters behind a cold front on a NNW wind. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected saturday with high pressure building to the north. The high will move off the new england coast saturday night into sunday allowing the winds to become more onshore. Marginal small craft conditions are possible on all waters by sunday.
Rip currents... For today the rip current risk should be low for the majority of the day with the surf only getting to around a foot. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all south-facing long island beaches on thursday, especially as a SE swell increases under an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon. Winds go light and turn N/NW on friday, leading to a low rip current risk.