Radar — KICT
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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- hot and humid conditions will linger over the area through saturday.
- increasing chances for showers and storms will arrive as we move into the weekend.
- more seasonable temperatures will arrive as we move into next week.
Issued at 209 PM CDT thu sep 17 2026
We continue to see a 600 dam h5 ridge slowly retrograding across the lower mississippi valley area towards the southern plains keeping hot and mostly subsident airmass over the area through the remainder of the work week. This feature represents an extreme event given naefs standardized anomalies of 3-4. This will keep our area well above average for late sept as we move into the beginning of the weekend. Meanwhile, a robust mid/upper trough over the pacific northwest is progged to move across the northern intermountain region on friday before arriving over the central and northern rockies as we move into saturday. A lead shortwave trough is progged to race eastward across the central/northern plains helping to drive a cold front southward across the central high plains on saturday. This front is expected to arrive in our forecast area by late afternoon or early evening providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms. A line of thunderstorms appears most likely although other more isolated activity could develop along the dryline late in the day or during the evening hours. Some severe storms may develop given steepening mid-lvl lapse rates, moderate CAPE and deep layer SHEAR in excess of 30 knots. Showers and thunderstorms may linger in the post-frontal airmass with a continued threat for severe storms saturday night. The threat for strong or severe storms may move south of the area as we move into sunday as a more stable post-frontal airmass arrives.
Mon-thu...a stable post-frontal regime will build across the area as we move into early next week with seasonable temperatures expected. Another shortwave trough may impact the area in the wed- thu timeframe bringing increasing probabilities for showers and storms.
Issued at 1211 PM CDT thu sep 17 2026
Breezy SSW afternoon winds will back to a southeast direction and diminish by early evening. Breezy southerly winds will return by mid morning on friday with gusts to around 35 MPH at times in central ks. There is some concern that we could see some early morning shower activity redevelop across central ks around sunrise but this activity is expected to be transient in nature. VFR is expected to prevail through the 24-hr period with some fair weather cumulus is possible (7k-8k ft range) in southeast ks this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon.